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Italy-France-Germany-Portugal-Spain ... yes they are the more obvious choices, but the winner will come from them. I think it will be from Italy/Germany/Portugal in actuality.
Germany/Portugal have a much easier road to the finals than any of Italy/France/Spain do. I think Italy can win the whole thing, but if not, then it will be whichever of Germany/Portugal make it from that half of the bracket.
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